Originally the short 1997-1999 period ended with a surplus of £9bn that can be added to the £50bn surplus that had already been banked from the 1999 to 2001 upturn. As Professor Peter Spencer, a respected economist, points out, the Chancellor is "judge, jury and executioner" when it comes to the rule. In particular he can decide when the economic cycle starts and when it ends.How does that impact on the rule, precisely?As the cycle starts when the economy is moving upwards, the early years are usually characterised by surpluses. Why the fuss?The problem is that despite the connotations of permanence and value that the phrase Golden Rule conjures up, the reality is far removed from that.
It set up two fiscal rules, one relating to the economic cycle.The first said the stock of public debt should be at a "stable and prudent level", later clarified as being 40 per cent. The second rule, known colloquially as the Golden Rule, said that "over the economic cycle", the Government would borrow only to invest and not to fund current spending.In other words, while the Government should be able to invest for the long term, it must ensure the money it raises during the "up" times pay for its extra needs on day-to-day spending needs during the "down" period.That sounds eminently sensible and straightforward. Here, we look for a way through the maze of issues surrounding the UK's public finances and the Government's rules for its own fiscal policy. What did the Chancellor do yesterday?He announced that after a major revision to past economic data - which showed that economic growth between 1997 and 2000 had averaged 3.5 per cent rather than 2.6 per cent as first thought - it was now clear the latest economic cycle began in the middle of 1997 rather than its provisional judgement of 1999.We all know that economies go through cycles - why is this so important?When Labour won power in 1997 it was keen to establish a reputation for credibility on public finances - something it had squandered in the 1970s. But given the heady price-earnings ratio of 16 we remain unimpressed Hands off the chocs..
A seemingly anodyne statement over the timing of the economic cycle by Gordon Brown has triggered accusations that the Chancellor is "shifting the goal posts" of its entire tax and spending policy. He wants to wring costs out and boost margins by, for starters, being "more organised" about its production schedules. He is also revamping the product range to include fewer but yummier options.Although Mr Burdon is more interested in profits than sales, he knows that for the long term he needs to spice up the group's core shops. But how? He is not entirely clear.Total group sales rose by 5 per cent to £187.7m, putting City profit expectations of £8.3m within reach.
